Last night I put the tweet below out, it is a simple questions about two unidentified markets.
Which one is more bullish? I asked people to retweet it if they thought chart A was more bullish or to “like” if they thought chart B looked better.
As of 8:45AM Est. there were 63 votes for A and 38 votes for B on twitter.
From email I had 97 votes for A and just 17 for B.
Intersting difference between audiences.
The chart on the left is GOLD and the one on the right is SILVER.
Both charts are approximately 15 years of trading (2003-2/7/18)
Each candle represents 1 month of spot trading.
There is a simple moving average which has been a good representative of the longer term trend.
In the chart below, I changed the color of the moving average to blue, just so it was easier to see.
I have also added directional arrows to show the slope of the moving average.
Both charts are mathematical vs logmarmithmic
To me, the chart of GOLD looks more bullish than SILVER right now.
See my reasons below the chart.
– GOLD is carving out higher lows at 1100, 1200 and 1250 in the last 2 years, which tells us that buyers are getting more aggressive price wise.
– The a longer term rising moving average shows buyers have maintained a dominating interest in gold since ~2015
– The less time between tests of resistance at the downtrend line, shows buyers are getting more aggressive time wise.
– Above 1375-1400 there was little volume transacted. This means there is less supply likely to be released (from people looking to get out even) until it gets up near 1600-1700.
Here is why SILVER doesn’t look as good as gold.
– The pullback in silver was much deeper than gold, this reveals less ability to store value.
– The longer term moving has been oscillating over the last 2 years and is currently negative.
– The range is tightening but there is more recent overhead supply near 20 to slow a rally attempt.
I am planning a more in-depth analysis of GOLD in the next couple of days. In it I will detail what scenarios I anticipate for a breakout, a risk management plan and timing. The best way to follow along is on Twitter @alphatrends
BTW, I only care about gold because the price action is getting bullish.